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October started off well, but we haven’t seen a price performance that meets expectations yet. On the other hand, it is also possible for BTC, which has been stuck in a narrow range for so long, to initiate a big movement. An expert analyst who has been sharing predictions about cryptocurrencies for years recently published his opinion on this matter.
Bitcoin Historical Data
There are historical patterns that are followed from four-year cycles to many on-chain metrics. Investors hope that these patterns will continue to work in the future, as they have worked successfully in the past. However, this is not always the case; for example, last year we saw BTC falling below the previous bull peak of $20,000. The king of crypto had never made such a violation before.
However, abnormal conditions can lead to unusual results. Last year was such an example. Nevertheless, there are experts who use historical data to determine future price movements. Whether they will be successful or not will only be revealed in time.
According to the analyst Rekt Capital, the current market structure of Bitcoin resembles the dynamics of 2019. In a recent price prediction, he made a bearish BTC prediction despite the recent price trends showing the opposite.
Will Bitcoin and Crypto Drop?
The drop in Bitcoin price also means the erosion of the prices of cryptocurrencies in general. The chart below shows that at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, Bitcoin traded in a narrow triangle with a peak point reaching $10,000. Shortly after, it broke out of a resistance level into an uncharted territory.
However, we saw that the BTC price fell below the critical support level of $3,250 afterwards. Rekt Capital predicts a similar behavior as the price approaches the upper level of the current channel. If he is right, the BTC price could drop to $20,000 and then $15,000. The analyst also said the following;
“The current Bitcoin market indicates that the price of BTC is currently at its peak in 2023. However, there will probably be an accumulation phase before it enters a parabolic uptrend.”
Although this analysis implies short-term losses for Bitcoin holders, Rekt Capital argues that long-term investors can see this as an opportunity.
“Within the next six months, we may see the final pullback to the $20,000 lower boundary and a stronger upward fluctuation before the halving. We may see such fluctuations before the halving.”
According to the current hash rate, the Bitcoin block reward halving is expected to occur in April 2024.