These Macro Factors Could Fuel the Longest Crypto Bull Run in History

Crypto markets have reached their highest levels for almost two years as total capitalization approaches $2 trillion. They have been buoyed by Bitcoin topping $50,000 this week, giving analysts plenty of fuel for speculation as to why things are different this time around for a crypto bull run scenario.

Crypto market capitalization is at $1.97 trillion, its highest level since April 2022, when things looked very different.

Crypto Market Bull Run Fundamentals

Back then, crypto markets were falling from their $3 trillion peak in November 2021 and entering bear market territory. This time around, they are coming out of a two-year crypto winter and have several fundamental factors not seen in previous cycles.

Total crypto market cap 2 years. Source: CoinGecko

On February 12, Syncracy Capital co-founder Daniel Cheung predicted a good chance this bull cycle would end up being,

“The largest in terms of market cap creation and longer in duration than expected.”

It is the first time the crypto bull market has aligned with the start of a Fed easing cycle, he noted. The US central bank is battling to keep inflation low and drop interest rates following two years of aggressive hikes.

Moreover, crypto markets remain in a “buy the dip” mentality absent a severe macro shock, he said. There has also been an absence of retail interest, which means things are still early. This week, BeInCrypto reported on the bear market levels of social engagement and search activity for Bitcoin and crypto.

Additionally, crypto ETFs provide “sustained bids into the asset class.” He added,

“We’re starting to see many large TradFi investment firms looking beyond the majors.”

There is also an abundance of narratives and subsectors emerging within crypto this year. These include artificial intelligence hype, real-world asset tokenization, restaking, etc. Cheung noted that these factors could,

“Help drive sustained pockets of wealth creation amongst investors in the asset class.”

Finally, he predicted a more positive regulatory approach given BlackRock’s entry into the ecosystem. Moreover, a lot of the bad actors were wiped out in the previous cycle.

Bitcoin Back at $50,000 is Different

On February 13, Bitcoiner “Mitchell” offered his thoughts on why Bitcoin at $50,000 is different this time. The last time the asset traded above $50,000 was in December 2021.

He commented that more than half of the BTC supply was “held by lettuce hands,” presumably referring to retail traders who often panic buy and sell.

Moreover, FTX was still in operation, as was the Terra/Luna scheme, which ultimately failed. It was also during the fastest US interest rate hikes in history, he added.

This time is very different, with 70% of the supply “held by diamond hands” and passive Wall Street bids through ETFs. It is also just a couple of months away from the Bitcoin halving, and rate cuts are coming this year.

The retail FOMO has yet to occur while institutions are quietly stacking. Therefore, the price will only go one way as this super cycle plays out over the next year or so.

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