Bitcoin’s 2024 Rally vs. 2021’s Climb to $57K: Insights from Glassnode

As we navigate through 2024, Bitcoin has once again captured the spotlight, marking a significant rally from around $42,500 to just over $57,000 as of February 27.

Source: TradingView

This surge draws a parallel to its 2021 trajectory when it leaped from approximately $27,700 at the year’s onset to a peak of $64,900 by April 12.

Source: TradingView

However, according to “Checkmate,” the pseudonymous lead Bitcoin on-chain analyst at blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, this year’s rally harbors distinct characteristics that set it apart from the past.

To understand the uniqueness of the 2024 rally, it’s essential to grasp a few key concepts that govern trading and market movements in the world of cryptocurrency.

In trading, an “uptrend” refers to a period where the price of an asset, like Bitcoin, consistently rises. This is often seen as a positive market sentiment, indicating strong demand and investor confidence. Conversely, a “downtrend” is marked by falling prices, reflecting negative sentiment or decreased demand.

“Short-sellers” are traders who bet on the price of an asset falling. They borrow an asset, sell it at the current market price, and aim to buy it back cheaper to profit from the difference. However, if the price rises instead, short-sellers may face “liquidation,” where they’re forced to buy back the asset at a higher price to cover their positions, often at a loss.

“Leveraged longs” are on the other side of the spectrum. These traders borrow capital to amplify their investment in an asset they believe will increase in value. While this can magnify profits, it also increases the risk of liquidation if the market moves against them, wiping out their investment.

Checkmate’s analysis sheds light on a pivotal difference in market behavior between the 2021 and 2024 rallies. He says in 2021, the peak of Bitcoin’s price surge saw leveraged longs getting liquidated as they bet heavily on continuing upward trends. However, the market corrected, and those over-leveraged positions were wiped out, contributing to the price pullback.

In contrast, according to the Glassnode analyst, the 2024 rally is characterized by short-sellers betting against Bitcoin’s rising trend, only to find themselves getting liquidated as the price continues its upward trajectory. This phenomenon indicates a strong and prevailing uptrend, defying the short-sellers’ expectations and forcing them to exit their positions at a loss.

This dynamic where short-sellers are the ones facing liquidation suggests a robust confidence in Bitcoin’s market strength. It highlights a collective belief in further price appreciation, contrary to the 2021 scenario where optimism was met with a sharp correction. Checkmate’s observation implies that we might not be at the peak of a bull market yet, as the prevailing trend is punishing those betting on a downturn rather than those optimistic about continued growth.

You know what sets this rally apart from the last time #Bitcoin hit $57k in 2021?

This time, short-sellers continue to bet against the prevailing uptrend, getting liquidated as a result.

At true bull market peaks, its the levered longs that get wiped out. Right now, its the 🩳s pic.twitter.com/V6vCo59al9

— _Checkɱate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) February 27, 2024

Featured Image via Pixabay

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