Conservative Bitcoin price prediction for late 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently dominated by bullish sentiments, with the leading cryptocurrency aiming to reclaim the $40,000 spot in pursuit of a new all-time high.

Indeed, a significant portion of the market expresses confidence that Bitcoin is poised to achieve new highs, supported by factors such as the upcoming halving event and the potential rollout of the first spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States.

In this case, crypto analyst CryptoCon shared what he termed ‘the most accurate log regression curves’ for Bitcoin in an X (formerly Twitter) post on November 24. The analysis sheds light on the historical performance of these curves and provides intriguing predictions for the next cycle top, expected in late 2025.

According to the analysis, investors should expect a possible Bitcoin price of about $94,000, a price target he termed conservative. He noted that until now, the crypto community has been in the dark about what the log regression curves might reveal for the upcoming cycle top.

“The most conservative target is layer 5 at 94k, it seems very unlikley that the entire red band would fail this cycle, so one of these targets are bound to be accurate,” he said.

Based on the analysis, if the $94,000 target is not attained, Bitcoin faces a potential price rally to $130,000 or $180,000.

The analyst suggested that failure across the entire range is unlikely in the current cycle. This sentiment leads to the conclusion that at least one of the presented targets will likely be accurate.

Historical accuracy

Highlighting the historical accuracy of the model, CryptoCon noted that it successfully predicted both tops in 2021. As a testament to its reliability, the analyst shared personal experience, using the model to sell coins at $54,000 in April of that year.

The analyst agreed with the estimate of $130,000, providing a specific time frame of plus/minus 21 days from November 28, 2025. This prediction aligns with the Halving Cycles Theory, adding a layer of analysis to the forecast.

Bitcoin’s current trajectory is predominantly influenced by ongoing speculation surrounding the approval of a post-ETF in the United States. Notably, with major players such as BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) showing interest in this product, widespread speculation exists about its potential to attract institutional investors.

According to a Finbold report, data suggests that the approval of a possible ETF has the potential to unleash a capital influx of $70 billion. Indeed, the most recent gains saw Bitcoin surpass $38,000 before experiencing a slight retreat. However, overall sentiments suggest that the asset is poised to break through the $40,000 resistance level.

Bitcoin price analysis

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $37,922, reflecting a daily gain of over 1.5%. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has seen an increase of around 4%.

In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin is currently dominated by bullish sentiments. A summary of the one-day gauges obtained from TradingView aligns with a ‘buy’ sentiment at 15. The moving averages indicate a ‘strong buy’ at 14, while oscillators suggest a ‘neutral’ stance at 9.

Despite the prevailing excitement surrounding the ETF and halving event, it’s important to note that Bitcoin remains susceptible to various external factors, such as inflation and geopolitical elements. These additional influences may impact the cryptocurrency market unexpectedly, highlighting the need for a comprehensive understanding of the broader economic landscape.

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