Is This 4,720% XRP Price Prediction Real or Pure Hopium?

The XRP price was one of the slowest gainers of 2023, increasing by only 100% from January 1 to December 31.

Despite this lack of momentum, a bullish XRP prediction that suggests the price will increase to at least $11 is making the rounds on X.

Bullish XRP Prediction

Cryptocurrency analyst and well-known XRP bull EGRAG CRYPTO made a thread outlining why he believes the XRP price will increase significantly this cycle.

His four main reasons are comparisons to cycles from other cryptocurrencies.

A) At 0.28c, a 40X surge could potentially hit around $11!

B) Pushing it further, a 50X leap might see it soar to around $14!

C) Comparing with #ETH‘s previous cycle multiplier of 58X, #XRP at 0.28c could reach an astounding $16!

D) Even if #XRP were to match #BTC‘s previous cycle multiplier of 21X, it could still climb to $ from the starting 5.88c!

It is worth mentioning that the previous prediction, which suggested the $28 target would be reached in October 2023, did not prove true.

XRP/USDT Daily Chart. Source: X

With that in mind, let’s look at some possibilities for the future XRP trend based on its performance in the previous cycles.

Why the Prediction Will Not Hold True

The technical analysis from the weekly time frame shows a massive discrepancy between the bullish cycle that started in 2017 and the one in 2020. In the 2017 cycle, the XRP price increased by a gigantic 88,000% in a year. It increased by only 1,800% in 2020.

Also, the all-time high of $3.53 from January still stands. In that sense, the 2020 cycle can only be considered a relief rally. Or, it could be part of a larger cycle since the XRP price did not reach a new all-time high.

Interestingly, a descending resistance trend line can be drawn since the all-time high, which aligns with the 2021 high. The trend line has been validated five times (red icons).

XRP/USD Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView

Market cycles in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have been weaker magnitude-wise each time. So, it is possible to assume that the same will occur in XRP. Assuming a maximum of an 1800% increase from the 2022 cycle low, XRP could reach a high of $5.60 if the assumption holds true.

However, the XRP price has already increased for 567 days since the low, making this the longest market cycle by far. It is also worth mentioning that the cycle low began with the lowest-ever weekly RSI value (red circle). The indicator had never crossed into oversold territory before.

Why the Prediction May Prove True

The main outline of how the bullish XRP prediction turns out true lies in the possibility that the cycle that began in 2020 was only the first part of a larger cycle or that the price has been mired in a correction since 2017, and the new cycle has not begun yet.

Notably, this type of movement has not been observed in most other cryptocurrencies, which began new cycles in 2020.

A breakout from the triangle that travels its entire length would lead to a high near $20. This would be a 6,700% increase measuring from the low. It would eclipse that observed in 2020 and nearly reach that from 2017.

For this possibility to remain valid, the XRP price would have to break out from the symmetrical triangle. Also, the RSI would have to break out from its descending resistance trend line.

XRP/USD Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView

Despite this bullish XRP price prediction, there are numerous horizontal and Fib resistance levels at $1.65, $3, and $9.20, respectively. These make it difficult for XRP to reach the target even if it breaks out.

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